乘美股上周五氣勢如虹，黑期顯示恒指高開200點以上，港股開市亦一如黑期高開200點，但其後A股急跌，觀察名單的股份跌2%拖累恒指稍微倒跌。
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
即時決策為: Long 兩張恒指大期
原本就有意追4張，但見A股跌得多，所以只買入2張增加Exposure。為什麼不是即月Call? 怕時間值損耗(26800點即月Call 為100點)
唔算醒，如果真心覺得機會應稍微大注，2張只是令Exposure上升至90%，算係保守並不是搏。
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hypothesis 1: 外資流入亞洲
澳元新高，南韓(YTD+19.46%)及港股(+20.42%)，而港股主要集中在大型股如內銀、HSBC，(平保升反而是北水有關)，因為外資不熟識小型股(正如我投資歐股日股，都係買BNP, LVMH, Calbee)，所以認為是外資買起港股
如此推斷，應以短期期指去搏，因1) 重估浪可能很快完，2)只升大型股。
2017年7月16日 星期日
2017年7月11日 星期二
主要留意股份的ROIC
ROIC Revenue 5yr CAGR EBIT margin
Mastercard 59% 3.3 53
Starbucks 48% 6.7 20
Hermes 45% 6.0 33
Fevertree 40% 58.4 34
Industria De Diseno 34% 5.7 17
Nvidia 32% 4.9 28
Kweichow Moutai 30% 8.9 7
Facebook 27% 52.7 45
Apple 27% 4.2 28
Ferrari 26% 3.0 19
Gree Electric 23% 2.2 14
Tencent 22% 17.8 35
Calbee 21% 5.3 11
Visa 20% 4.4 52
Reckitt Benckiser 20% 0.8 24
Alphabet 18% 8.1 26
LVMH 18% 5.3 18
Priceline 17% 6.2 27
Assa Abloy 15% 11.2 13
Kuka 13% 14.1 4
Midea 13% 11.7 10
Alibaba 13% 17.8 30
Netflix 11% 12.5 4
Amazon 11% 11.2 3
MTR 5% 3.0 26
ROIC的好處是貼近IRR, 反映出過去項目回報率(並不是運用槓桿後)，從而知道公司是否有競爭優勢，做的業務是否好好賺。
缺點: 不是反映Cash flow generation, 而且沒有反映將來收入的增長潛力。例如本身產品好好賺但再增長的空間有限，公司沒有能力搵到新項目可以不斷增長而同時維持咁高的回報率。
恒指連續兩日大升及科技股回升(11/7/2017)
基於風險管理想恒指下跌追近恒指而平了一張國紙長倉證明是錯誤的。
早上平了恒指淡倉(1張)及國指長倉(1張)，下午回來升勢擴大，突別是A股，格力升5.9%，茅台升2%，美的及威視亦升近4%，帶動恒指升400點，逼近26000點。
行動: 沽即月恒指26200點Call
原因: 當係Cover call，收集Risk premium，恒指上升未能突破26000，所以以26200作為目標，希望26000點前盡收期權金。
行動: 沽即月恒指25000點Put
原因: 25000之前未有攻破，組合未滿倉，如恒指跌至25000點應追回不少，25000點值得加倉增加EXPOSURE。
部署:
1)騰訊反彈就做Cover call 收期權金(可同時Long Put 做Collar) 取消原因: 做恒指Cover call比較值搏
2) 2318.HK OTM Call ( 0.4% for 撈底，0.4%搏末日期權)
檢討:
(留名)
重要主題及部署計劃++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
自己
Long JPYvAUD?
公司
主題
1) 全球利率上升(宜:銀行金融股，忌: AAA債)
2) Flat Yield Curve (Tech deflation, lower long term yield) (宜:-，忌: 短債，中性: Real Estate, Cash cow Staple)
3) 中國整傾影子銀行、危企(宜:長遠銀行金融股(受惠金融結構改善)，忌: 中小型公司、槓桿大企業)
4) 仍然是科技天下(注意收窄至最優質公司, Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Alibaba, Tencent, Tesla? Nvidia?)
早上平了恒指淡倉(1張)及國指長倉(1張)，下午回來升勢擴大，突別是A股，格力升5.9%，茅台升2%，美的及威視亦升近4%，帶動恒指升400點，逼近26000點。
行動: 沽即月恒指26200點Call
原因: 當係Cover call，收集Risk premium，恒指上升未能突破26000，所以以26200作為目標，希望26000點前盡收期權金。
行動: 沽即月恒指25000點Put
原因: 25000之前未有攻破，組合未滿倉，如恒指跌至25000點應追回不少，25000點值得加倉增加EXPOSURE。
部署:
1)
2) 2318.HK OTM Call ( 0.4% for 撈底，0.4%搏末日期權)
檢討:
(留名)
重要主題及部署計劃++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
自己
Long JPYvAUD?
公司
主題
1) 全球利率上升(宜:銀行金融股，忌: AAA債)
2) Flat Yield Curve (Tech deflation, lower long term yield) (宜:-，忌: 短債，中性: Real Estate, Cash cow Staple)
3) 中國整傾影子銀行、危企(宜:長遠銀行金融股(受惠金融結構改善)，忌: 中小型公司、槓桿大企業)
4) 仍然是科技天下(注意收窄至最優質公司, Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Alibaba, Tencent, Tesla? Nvidia?)
2017年7月6日 星期四
科技股繼續跌
昨晚美股大跌，歐央行議息紀錄顯示有可能提早結束QE, 歐銀升但其他歐股跌。
昨日公司組合縮減股數(集中較有信心的Calbee 及Keyence)，同時增持招行。我對譚新強說法半信半疑(其認為中央整頓危企及影子銀行完善金融市場結構，有利外資對內地金融股估值看法)。
但如果理財產品真爆，A股及港股應難免於難，但金融股低估值長遠又受惠，似乎最抵搏。
歐元強，兌美金、英鎊及日圓皆強。新興市場貨幣弱，盧布YTD只餘下2.37%升幅，蘭特2.26%，只有墨西哥披索比較強，YTD+13% (但最高有18%)
部署:
1) 騰訊反彈就做Cover call 收期權金(可同時Long Put 做Collar)
2) 2318.HK OTM Call ( 0.4% for 撈底，0.4%搏末日期權)
3) 等位剪嘉能可淡倉
行動:
原因:
檢討:
(留名)
重要主題及部署計劃++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
自己
Long EURvJPY (理由: 還Eur(買Eur)改借仲係低息的JPY(沽JPY)
公司
1) 騰訊反彈就做Cover call 收期權金(可同時Long Put 做Collar)
2) 2318.HK OTM Call ( 0.4% for 撈底，0.4%搏末日期權)
3) 等位剪嘉能可淡倉
主題
1) 全球利率上升(宜:銀行金融股，忌: AAA債)
2) Flat Yield Curve (Tech deflation, lower long term yield) (宜:-，忌: 短債，中性: Real Estate, Cash cow Staple)
3) 中國整傾影子銀行、危企(宜:長遠銀行金融股(受惠金融結構改善)，忌: 中小型公司、槓桿大企業)
4) 仍然是科技天下(注意收窄至最優質公司, Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Alibaba, Tencent, Tesla? Nvidia?)
昨日公司組合縮減股數(集中較有信心的Calbee 及Keyence)，同時增持招行。我對譚新強說法半信半疑(其認為中央整頓危企及影子銀行完善金融市場結構，有利外資對內地金融股估值看法)。
但如果理財產品真爆，A股及港股應難免於難，但金融股低估值長遠又受惠，似乎最抵搏。
歐元強，兌美金、英鎊及日圓皆強。新興市場貨幣弱，盧布YTD只餘下2.37%升幅，蘭特2.26%，只有墨西哥披索比較強，YTD+13% (但最高有18%)
部署:
1) 騰訊反彈就做Cover call 收期權金(可同時Long Put 做Collar)
2) 2318.HK OTM Call ( 0.4% for 撈底，0.4%搏末日期權)
3) 等位剪嘉能可淡倉
行動:
原因:
檢討:
(留名)
重要主題及部署計劃++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
自己
Long EURvJPY (理由: 還Eur(買Eur)改借仲係低息的JPY(沽JPY)
公司
1) 騰訊反彈就做Cover call 收期權金(可同時Long Put 做Collar)
2) 2318.HK OTM Call ( 0.4% for 撈底，0.4%搏末日期權)
3) 等位剪嘉能可淡倉
主題
1) 全球利率上升(宜:銀行金融股，忌: AAA債)
2) Flat Yield Curve (Tech deflation, lower long term yield) (宜:-，忌: 短債，中性: Real Estate, Cash cow Staple)
3) 中國整傾影子銀行、危企(宜:長遠銀行金融股(受惠金融結構改善)，忌: 中小型公司、槓桿大企業)
4) 仍然是科技天下(注意收窄至最優質公司, Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Alibaba, Tencent, Tesla? Nvidia?)
2017年7月5日 星期三
Hedge Fund Market Wizard - Stock Operator
Steve Clark - Omni Global Fund
1) Price is irrelevant; it is size that kill you. If you are too big in an illiquid stock, there is no way out.
Martin Taylor - Nevsky Fund
1) Buying low-beta stocks is a common mistake investor make. ...You have negatively asymmetric returns.
2) I believe that if you're trading very volatile instuments and you are completely out of the market when it reverses, then you will never get back in again. I will have some net long exposure even when I am bearish.
3) The High volatility of emerging markets leads to a bias of managers making poor investment decisions, such as panicking out of positions near the bottom and jumping into positions near the top because they are afraid of missing the move
4) Half to three-quarters of our shorts are stock index futures....We only short bad companies that can't be taken over because they are owned by the government or their own pension fund.
5) Charts are very important...If the stock is very overbought, it won't stop me from buying, but I will start with a small position because there is a larger chance of a correction
Tom Claugus - GMT
1) I felt that the fundamental underpinnings of the company were completely different from the way it was being priced.
2) Being short in a rising market is very difficult from an investor relations standpoint.
3) The number one risk factor for me is leverage.
Joe Vidich - Manalapan Oracle Capital Management
1) If you have a stop order in the market, it means that one price will dictate the outcome. That is a bad concept. You can, however, use mental stops, which are essentially evaluation points.
2) The right way to manage risk is to monitor your positions and to have a mental point at which you reevaluate the position.
3) I scale out, and I also scale in. The idea is don't try to be 100 percent right.
4) "if you buy a stock at 40 that you think would be fully priced at 80..." I would sell it at 75 on the way down rather than at 80 because I might be giving up much more on the upside than the difference in selling it a little bit lower.
5) The critical risk controls are being diversified and cutting your exposure when you don't understand what the markets are doing and why you are wrong.
Kevin Daly -
1) I think that it's easy to avoid value traps. The trick is to stay away from companies that can't grow their cash flow and increase intrinsic value.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Market Wizards
Bruce Kovner
1) The first rule of trading, there are probably many first rules, is don't get caught in a situation in which you can lose a great deal of money for reasons you don't understand.
2) I don't trade simply on technical information. ....I can't hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.
3) Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future....Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and , therefore, does pick up unusual behavior...Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.
4) Tight congestions in which a breakout occurs for reasons that nobody understands are usually good risk/reward trades.
5) Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis....I always place my stop beyond some technical barrier.
6) First of all, a loss of money itself slows me down, so I reduce my positions. Secondly, in the situation you described (still believe in the fundamental analysis underlying the trade, assume will try it again), the change in the technical picture will give me second thoughts
7) What I am really looking for is a consensus that the market is not confirming
8) What makes you different from the average guy? .... For myself, I can think of two important elements. First, I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine that soybean prices can double or that the dollar can fall to 100 yen. Second, I stay rational and disciplined under pressure.
Paul Tudor Jones
1) I will keep cutting my position size down as I have losing trades. When I am trading poorly, I keep reducing my position size. That way, I will be trading my smallest position size when my trading is worst.
2) Don't ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well.
3) If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get our, because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start.
4) I have always been a swing trader, meaning that I believe the very best money is to be made at the market turns.
5) When I trade, I don't just use a price stop, I also use a time stop.
Stanley Druckenmiller
1) I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing.
2) The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.
3) Whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.
1) Price is irrelevant; it is size that kill you. If you are too big in an illiquid stock, there is no way out.
Martin Taylor - Nevsky Fund
1) Buying low-beta stocks is a common mistake investor make. ...You have negatively asymmetric returns.
2) I believe that if you're trading very volatile instuments and you are completely out of the market when it reverses, then you will never get back in again. I will have some net long exposure even when I am bearish.
3) The High volatility of emerging markets leads to a bias of managers making poor investment decisions, such as panicking out of positions near the bottom and jumping into positions near the top because they are afraid of missing the move
4) Half to three-quarters of our shorts are stock index futures....We only short bad companies that can't be taken over because they are owned by the government or their own pension fund.
5) Charts are very important...If the stock is very overbought, it won't stop me from buying, but I will start with a small position because there is a larger chance of a correction
Tom Claugus - GMT
1) I felt that the fundamental underpinnings of the company were completely different from the way it was being priced.
2) Being short in a rising market is very difficult from an investor relations standpoint.
3) The number one risk factor for me is leverage.
Joe Vidich - Manalapan Oracle Capital Management
1) If you have a stop order in the market, it means that one price will dictate the outcome. That is a bad concept. You can, however, use mental stops, which are essentially evaluation points.
2) The right way to manage risk is to monitor your positions and to have a mental point at which you reevaluate the position.
3) I scale out, and I also scale in. The idea is don't try to be 100 percent right.
4) "if you buy a stock at 40 that you think would be fully priced at 80..." I would sell it at 75 on the way down rather than at 80 because I might be giving up much more on the upside than the difference in selling it a little bit lower.
5) The critical risk controls are being diversified and cutting your exposure when you don't understand what the markets are doing and why you are wrong.
Kevin Daly -
1) I think that it's easy to avoid value traps. The trick is to stay away from companies that can't grow their cash flow and increase intrinsic value.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Market Wizards
Bruce Kovner
1) The first rule of trading, there are probably many first rules, is don't get caught in a situation in which you can lose a great deal of money for reasons you don't understand.
2) I don't trade simply on technical information. ....I can't hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.
3) Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future....Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and , therefore, does pick up unusual behavior...Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.
4) Tight congestions in which a breakout occurs for reasons that nobody understands are usually good risk/reward trades.
5) Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis....I always place my stop beyond some technical barrier.
6) First of all, a loss of money itself slows me down, so I reduce my positions. Secondly, in the situation you described (still believe in the fundamental analysis underlying the trade, assume will try it again), the change in the technical picture will give me second thoughts
7) What I am really looking for is a consensus that the market is not confirming
8) What makes you different from the average guy? .... For myself, I can think of two important elements. First, I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine that soybean prices can double or that the dollar can fall to 100 yen. Second, I stay rational and disciplined under pressure.
Paul Tudor Jones
1) I will keep cutting my position size down as I have losing trades. When I am trading poorly, I keep reducing my position size. That way, I will be trading my smallest position size when my trading is worst.
2) Don't ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well.
3) If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get our, because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start.
4) I have always been a swing trader, meaning that I believe the very best money is to be made at the market turns.
5) When I trade, I don't just use a price stop, I also use a time stop.
Stanley Druckenmiller
1) I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing.
2) The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.
3) Whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.
2017年7月4日 星期二
投資係看值搏率唔係對與錯
戰爭風險放係前面，應該如何部署? 減倉? 對沖? 撈底?
其實只要投資，前面永遠有憂慮，希臘破產、美國調低評級、英國脫勾、聯儲局加息縮表、北韓戰爭、中東政治、歐盟解體、中國債務危機、AI取代人類.......
但真正的風險其實是永遠靠邊站，十年八載之後，輕舟已過萬重山，自己沒有寸進陷入平庸。搏下又有乜所謂呢?
當然唔係亂咁搏，但搏的方法唔係靠準確預測所有事情的發展方向(根本無可能預測到)，反而是睇值搏率即是賠率夠不夠。
利用值搏率做投資，說真的我沒有掌握到，大概記下一些想法:
1) Bitcoin、Tesla、美圖，小注搏大贏
2) Price in - 市場/價格已反映多少預期? 反映愈多，相反方向的賠率愈高。
3) 不是看一次兩鋪，是看好多鋪: 例如止蝕，雖然有時止蝕完就反彈(會痛苦，因為人類不喜觀錯誤)，但總有一兩鋪如果唔止蝕會輸得好甘，始終有著數。
4) 短線與長線，有D野終會發生但唔知幾時，不仿細注買下
5) 不要怕Negative Carry, Negative Carry先有機會大Upside, 較低機會受黑天鵝重挫(因為獲利不是基於Model, 預測)
其實只要投資，前面永遠有憂慮，希臘破產、美國調低評級、英國脫勾、聯儲局加息縮表、北韓戰爭、中東政治、歐盟解體、中國債務危機、AI取代人類.......
但真正的風險其實是永遠靠邊站，十年八載之後，輕舟已過萬重山，自己沒有寸進陷入平庸。搏下又有乜所謂呢?
當然唔係亂咁搏，但搏的方法唔係靠準確預測所有事情的發展方向(根本無可能預測到)，反而是睇值搏率即是賠率夠不夠。
利用值搏率做投資，說真的我沒有掌握到，大概記下一些想法:
1) Bitcoin、Tesla、美圖，小注搏大贏
2) Price in - 市場/價格已反映多少預期? 反映愈多，相反方向的賠率愈高。
3) 不是看一次兩鋪，是看好多鋪: 例如止蝕，雖然有時止蝕完就反彈(會痛苦，因為人類不喜觀錯誤)，但總有一兩鋪如果唔止蝕會輸得好甘，始終有著數。
4) 短線與長線，有D野終會發生但唔知幾時，不仿細注買下
5) 不要怕Negative Carry, Negative Carry先有機會大Upside, 較低機會受黑天鵝重挫(因為獲利不是基於Model, 預測)
A股下跌及北韓成功試射洲際飛彈
A股跌幅顯注，老板電器-4.37%, 海康威視-3.3%, 格力-1.53%, 美的-0.72%。港股跌400點(3:00pm),
亞洲及歐洲開市下跌，估計與北韓成功試射洲際飛彈有關，證據: 避險三寶全線上升Yen +0.49%, UST +0.27%, Gold spot +0.47%
澳元下跌-0.5%
可行行動: Short Yen (搏最後無事,恢復之前跌勢)，撈股票
行動:
私人: 沒有Long Yen
公司: 沽PHIA換馬至招行3968
原因:
不能排除之後可能好大獲, 滿倉股票再+Short Yen太Aggressive, 為何不Long Yen Hedge? 因為覺得最後無事居多。
PHIA太保守平平無奇，換馬招行可以有撈底效果+中國利息上升及金融市場結構改善令估值提升。
檢討:
(留名)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
亞洲及歐洲開市下跌，估計與北韓成功試射洲際飛彈有關，證據: 避險三寶全線上升Yen +0.49%, UST +0.27%, Gold spot +0.47%
澳元下跌-0.5%
可行行動: Short Yen (搏最後無事,恢復之前跌勢)，撈股票
行動:
私人: 沒有Long Yen
公司: 沽PHIA換馬至招行3968
原因:
不能排除之後可能好大獲, 滿倉股票再+Short Yen太Aggressive, 為何不Long Yen Hedge? 因為覺得最後無事居多。
PHIA太保守平平無奇，換馬招行可以有撈底效果+中國利息上升及金融市場結構改善令估值提升。
檢討:
(留名)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)